PREDICTION OF THE BITCOIN PRIZE: A 2014 GRAPHIC BASED ON MATHEMATICS TO PREPARE $ 100,000 FOR 2021

We came across this week on an interesting tweet, published by Tuur Demeester.

Above all, we want to remind you that price predictions are never an exact science. It is still impossible to predict accurately a market price, since it will depend on the confrontation between supply and demand for an asset. Finally, it is not because the price of Bitcoin could roughly follow the progression mentioned in the graph that we will present, that such a development should continue.

Tuur Demeester is an economist, and is editor-in-chief of Adamant Research. The tweet he recently posted is a tweet he had already written in December 2014.

This is accompanied by a graph, which establishes a relation between the time (x, on the abscissa axis) and the Bitcoin price (y, on the ordinate axis):

The time and the price of Bitcoin would thus be, according to this model, roughly linked, through a logarithmic regression curve.

Here are the main predictions that can be drawn from this graph:

a price of $ 1,000 on April 24, 2015: it was far from the case, since the price would then amount to only $ 247. Note, however, that the price of Bitcoin had already reached the threshold for the first time before this chart was developed in November 2013.
a price of $ 10,000 on November 22, 2017: this is perhaps what surprises the most with this chart, since the price of Bitcoin amounted to that date about 8200 dollars. This prediction, dating back about 3 years, has thus been able to predict the price of Bitcoin, with a small margin of error (around 22%)
a prize of $ 100,000 on July 16, 2021
It was unfortunately impossible for us to know the methodology that was used to obtain such an equation, nor to know who was behind these calculations.

Many personalities from the world of finance are trying to predict the price of Bitcoin ... or slap a speculative bubble

Many observers give their opinion on the future price of Bitcoin. And some share a bullish feeling, as is the case:

Ronnie Moas, who predicted a price of $ 11,000 in 2018. He estimates that we should see Bitcoin reach $ 20,000 within 3 years, and $ 50,000 within 10 years.
from Mike Novogratz, the fund manager, who sees Bitcoin at $ 10,000 before the end of 2017.
Tom Lee of FundStrat consulting company, who imagines a price of $ 11,500 for mid-2018
On the contrary, many personalities believe that the price of Bitcoin should soon drop significantly. This is the case of Warren Buffet, who sees "a real speculative bubble" and a "mirage". One can also quote Jim Kramer, who castigates a speculative bubble surrounding a currency "used by traders eager to generate quick wins, and by companies forced to pay ransoms to hackers."

Finally, we can be interested in the case of Jamie Dimon. After saying that Bitcoin was a "fraud", it seems that the company he runs, JPMorgan Chase, could allow its customers to speculate on the value of digital currency.

When writing this article, the price of Bitcoin was about to exceed the $ 8500 mark.

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